“They are coming!” Could the smartphone market be going where the PC market went 10 years ago? Gartner’s latest prediction, as to the future of mobile OS saturation and dominance, hints at the democratization of smart-phones but also to the shifting of powers. The Chart above says it all but essentailly, Gartner predicts that Android will rule the future, in terms of OS marketshare, with Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 taking second and iOS coming in third – all this by 2014.
Gartner goes on to say that it believes Apple will fall into this third place position because it is unlikely to lower its margins per phone, allowing competitors to sell their phones at cheaper prices, thus gaining market share. This is what we saw in the pc market, where Apple hold a 15% market share in the US but its profits (due to high margins) out weigh its competitors.
Personally, I believe Apple will combate this trend by releasing a cheaper version of the iphone because unlike the pc market, Apple makes tons of cash from the whole itunes ecosystem. Hardware sales are their cash cow but their vast saturation of iOS devices, also allows them to rake in billions from music/movie/app sales.
Gartner may say they predict the future but the tech industry evolves faster than their current statistical analysis allows – essentially they are predicting the future with present data – good luck with that.